PITCHER MATCHUP

Connor Prielipp vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connor Prielipp's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connor Prielipp's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .323vs RHH xwOBA .306Seasons 2026
Slider 31%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Curveball 18%Sinker 15%Changeup 10%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connor Prielipp, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.