PITCHER MATCHUP

Connor Prielipp vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connor Prielipp's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connor Prielipp's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .343vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026
Slider 31%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Curveball 17%Sinker 13%Changeup 11%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connor Prielipp, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.