PITCHER MATCHUP

Connor Prielipp vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connor Prielipp's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connor Prielipp's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .316vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026
Slider 30%Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 17%Changeup 12%Sinker 11%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connor Prielipp, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 579 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 LR Luke Raley LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 CE Colt Emerson LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-01 game page →