PITCHER MATCHUP

Colin Rea vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Colin Rea's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Colin Rea's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .361vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Sinker 13%Splitter 12%Sweeper 10%Slider 9%Cutter 9%Curveball 7%Changeup 2%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Colin Rea, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KC Kody Clemens SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Austin Martin RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 RL Royce Lewis RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TG Tristan Gray LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Gray
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-17 game page →