PITCHER MATCHUP

Colin Rea vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Colin Rea's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Colin Rea's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .358vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Sinker 13%Splitter 12%Sweeper 10%Slider 9%Cutter 9%Curveball 7%Changeup 2%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Colin Rea, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 RG Riley Greene LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 MV Matt Vierling RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Vierling
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KC Kerry Carpenter LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kerry Carpenter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-22 game page →