PITCHER MATCHUP

Colin Rea vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Colin Rea's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Colin Rea's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .356vs RHH xwOBA .320Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Sinker 13%Splitter 12%Sweeper 10%Cutter 9%Slider 9%Curveball 7%Changeup 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Colin Rea, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TF Ty France RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-01 game page →