PITCHER MATCHUP

Colin Rea vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Colin Rea's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Colin Rea's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .358vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Sinker 13%Splitter 11%Sweeper 10%Slider 9%Cutter 8%Curveball 7%Changeup 3%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Colin Rea, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Iván Herrera RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-28 game page →