PITCHER MATCHUP

Colin Rea vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Colin Rea's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Colin Rea's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .357vs RHH xwOBA .325Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Sinker 13%Splitter 11%Sweeper 10%Slider 9%Cutter 8%Curveball 7%Changeup 4%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Colin Rea, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MW Masyn Winn RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 NC Nathan Church LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JF José Fermín RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 VS Victor Scott II LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Scott II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.