PITCHER MATCHUP

Colin Rea vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Colin Rea's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Colin Rea's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .356vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Sinker 13%Splitter 11%Sweeper 10%Slider 9%Cutter 9%Curveball 7%Changeup 4%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Colin Rea, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MS Myles Straw RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JS Josh Smith LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.