PITCHER MATCHUP

Colin Rea vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Colin Rea's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Colin Rea's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .357vs RHH xwOBA .325Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Sinker 13%Splitter 11%Sweeper 10%Slider 9%Cutter 8%Curveball 7%Changeup 4%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Colin Rea, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.