PITCHER MATCHUP

Clay Holmes vs Chicago White Sox

How the Chicago White Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Clay Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Clay Holmes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .329vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 45%Sweeper 19%Changeup 14%Slider 9%Cutter 7%Four-Seam Fastball 4%Curveball 2%

How the Chicago White Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago White Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Clay Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 MV Miguel Vargas RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Vargas
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CM Colson Montgomery LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colson Montgomery
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CM Chase Meidroth RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase Meidroth
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SA Sam Antonacci LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sam Antonacci
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AB Andrew Benintendi LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Benintendi
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TP Tristan Peters LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Peters
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Munetaka Murakami LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Munetaka Murakami
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BM Braden Montgomery SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Braden Montgomery
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RG Randal Grichuk RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randal Grichuk
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-19 game page →