PITCHER MATCHUP

Clay Holmes vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Clay Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Clay Holmes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .321vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 45%Sweeper 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%Slider 8%Four-Seam Fastball 3%Curveball 3%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Clay Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 614 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 TF TJ Friedl LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .223 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-18 game page →