PITCHER MATCHUP

Clay Holmes vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Clay Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Clay Holmes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .300Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 45%Sweeper 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%Slider 7%Four-Seam Fastball 3%Curveball 3%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Clay Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 510 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 643 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TS Trevor Story RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NS Nick Sogard SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-25 game page →