PITCHER MATCHUP

Clay Holmes vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Clay Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Clay Holmes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .325vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 45%Sweeper 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%Slider 8%Four-Seam Fastball 3%Curveball 3%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Clay Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 554 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-12 game page →