PITCHER MATCHUP

Clay Holmes vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Clay Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Clay Holmes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .323vs RHH xwOBA .298Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 45%Sweeper 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 9%Slider 7%Four-Seam Fastball 3%Curveball 3%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Clay Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.