PITCHER MATCHUP

Clay Holmes vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Clay Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Clay Holmes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .325vs RHH xwOBA .300Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 45%Sweeper 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%Slider 8%Four-Seam Fastball 3%Curveball 3%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Clay Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-06 game page →