PITCHER MATCHUP
Clay Holmes vs St. Louis Cardinals
How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Clay Holmes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Clay Holmes's arsenal
Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .323vs RHH xwOBA .298Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 45%Sweeper 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 9%Slider 7%Four-Seam Fastball 3%Curveball 3%
How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Clay Holmes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .313
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1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
- Sinker (45% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .345
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
- Sinker (45% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .322
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
- Sinker (45% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
- Sinker (45% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
- Sinker (45% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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6 NC Nathan Church LHB .299
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
- Sinker (45% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 JF José Fermín RHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
- Sinker (45% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .318
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
- Sinker (45% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .287
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
- Sinker (45% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.