PITCHER MATCHUP

Chris Sale vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chris Sale's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chris Sale's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .255vs RHH xwOBA .271Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 42%Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 10%Sinker 7%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chris Sale, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.