PITCHER MATCHUP

Chris Sale vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chris Sale's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chris Sale's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .258vs RHH xwOBA .269Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 42%Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 10%Sinker 7%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chris Sale, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 506 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.