PITCHER MATCHUP

Chris Sale vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chris Sale's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chris Sale's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .257vs RHH xwOBA .276Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 42%Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 11%Sinker 6%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chris Sale, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-23 game page →