PITCHER MATCHUP

Chris Sale vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chris Sale's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chris Sale's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .255vs RHH xwOBA .271Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 42%Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 10%Sinker 7%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chris Sale, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .227 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 OC Owen Caissie LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .414 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.