PITCHER MATCHUP

Chris Sale vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chris Sale's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chris Sale's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .257vs RHH xwOBA .279Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 42%Four-Seam Fastball 40%Changeup 11%Sinker 6%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chris Sale, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Iván Herrera RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 492 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-10 game page →