PITCHER MATCHUP

Chris Sale vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chris Sale's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chris Sale's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .255vs RHH xwOBA .271Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 42%Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 10%Sinker 7%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chris Sale, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Slider (42% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.