PITCHER MATCHUP

Chase Burns vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chase Burns's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chase Burns's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .250Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 56%Slider 37%Changeup 5%Sinker 1%Curveball 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chase Burns, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 564 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.