PITCHER MATCHUP

Chase Burns vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chase Burns's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chase Burns's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .250Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 56%Slider 37%Changeup 5%Sinker 1%Curveball 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chase Burns, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jake Mangum SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.