PITCHER MATCHUP

Chase Burns vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chase Burns's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chase Burns's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .294vs RHH xwOBA .263Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 57%Slider 36%Changeup 6%Curveball 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chase Burns, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 HD Henry Davis RHB .270
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ER Endy Rodríguez SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Endy Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.