PITCHER MATCHUP

Chase Burns vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chase Burns's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chase Burns's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .286vs RHH xwOBA .259Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 57%Slider 37%Changeup 5%Curveball 1%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chase Burns, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 671 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alec Bohm RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 466 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 572 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 BH Bryce Harper LHB .371
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BS Bryson Stott LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.