PITCHER MATCHUP

Chase Burns vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chase Burns's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chase Burns's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .295vs RHH xwOBA .261Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 57%Slider 37%Changeup 5%Curveball 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chase Burns, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LJ Leo Jiménez RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Jiménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-14 game page →