PITCHER MATCHUP

Chase Burns vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chase Burns's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chase Burns's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .250Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 56%Slider 37%Changeup 5%Sinker 1%Curveball 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chase Burns, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 OC Owen Caissie LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .377
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .417 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.