PITCHER MATCHUP

Chase Burns vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chase Burns's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chase Burns's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .293vs RHH xwOBA .265Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 57%Slider 36%Changeup 6%Curveball 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chase Burns, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 564 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 LR Luke Raley LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .369
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CE Colt Emerson LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MG Mitch Garver RHB .276
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (36% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-21 game page →