PITCHER MATCHUP

Chase Burns vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chase Burns's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chase Burns's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .252Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 57%Slider 37%Changeup 5%Curveball 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chase Burns, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CY Cole Young LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 551 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 606 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VR Victor Robles RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LR Leo Rivas SH .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Rivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.