PITCHER MATCHUP

Chase Burns vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chase Burns's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chase Burns's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .250Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 56%Slider 37%Changeup 5%Sinker 1%Curveball 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chase Burns, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.