PITCHER MATCHUP

Chase Burns vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chase Burns's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chase Burns's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .250Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 56%Slider 37%Changeup 5%Sinker 1%Curveball 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chase Burns, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 628 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.