PITCHER MATCHUP

Chase Burns vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chase Burns's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chase Burns's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .299vs RHH xwOBA .251Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 57%Slider 37%Changeup 5%Curveball 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chase Burns, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 554 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 577 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 596 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-30 game page →