PITCHER MATCHUP

Chase Burns vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chase Burns's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chase Burns's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .286vs RHH xwOBA .259Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 57%Slider 37%Changeup 5%Curveball 1%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chase Burns, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .360
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .272
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BJ Blaze Jordan RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Jordan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-19 game page →