PITCHER MATCHUP

Chase Burns vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Chase Burns's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Chase Burns's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .250Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 56%Slider 37%Changeup 5%Sinker 1%Curveball 1%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Chase Burns, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .270
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (56% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (37% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.