PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .277vs RHH xwOBA .330Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 578 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AW Austin Wells LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 509 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SJ Spencer Jones LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Jones
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.