PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AW Austin Wells LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SJ Spencer Jones LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Jones
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 AJ Aaron Judge RHB .369
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Aaron Judge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .420 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .497 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.