PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .280vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 21%Sinker 11%SV 9%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 510 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 BB Byron Buxton RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 RL Royce Lewis RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-22 game page →