PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BB Byron Buxton RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.