PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .276vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 21%Sinker 12%SV 9%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 IC Isaac Collins SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 547 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 LT Lane Thomas RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Michael Massey LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 SM Starling Marte RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Starling Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-25 game page →