PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 MM Michael Massey LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 592 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MG Maikel Garcia RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Maikel Garcia
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.