PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willi Castro SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KK Kyle Karros RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CC Cole Carrigg SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Carrigg
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.