PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .275vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 KK Kyle Karros RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 CN Connor Norby RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 CC Cole Carrigg SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Carrigg
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-14 game page →