PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 624 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 551 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.