PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .278vs RHH xwOBA .325Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 597 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 529 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MM Matt McLain RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TF TJ Friedl LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EA Edwin Arroyo SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edwin Arroyo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-02 game page →