PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.