PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .280vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 21%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 492 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-28 game page →