PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Texas Rangers

How the Texas Rangers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .272vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 24%Slider 20%Sinker 12%SV 9%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Texas Rangers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Texas Rangers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 BN Brandon Nimmo LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Nimmo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 568 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JJ Josh Jung RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Jung
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 JB Jake Burger RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Burger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ED Ezequiel Duran RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JP Joc Pederson LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joc Pederson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 EC Evan Carter LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Evan Carter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 CS Corey Seager LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corey Seager
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AO Alejandro Osuna LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Osuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 KH Kyle Higashioka RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Higashioka
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-05 game page →