PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Texas Rangers

How the Texas Rangers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .280vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 21%Sinker 12%SV 9%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Texas Rangers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Texas Rangers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 BN Brandon Nimmo LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Nimmo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 611 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Jake Burger RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Burger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ED Ezequiel Duran RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JP Joc Pederson LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joc Pederson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 EC Evan Carter LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Evan Carter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 WL Wyatt Langford RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wyatt Langford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CS Corey Seager LHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corey Seager
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nicky Lopez LHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nicky Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 ED Elias Díaz RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elias Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.