PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 719 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 621 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .442 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BH Bryce Harper LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AB Alec Bohm RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.