PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 24%Slider 20%Sinker 12%SV 9%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 541 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .440 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BH Bryce Harper LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AB Alec Bohm RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JC Justin Crawford LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ES Edmundo Sosa RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edmundo Sosa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-11 game page →