PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .280vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 21%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 461 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 677 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alec Bohm RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 576 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .438 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BH Bryce Harper LHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BS Bryson Stott LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 543 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.