PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Washington Nationals

How the Washington Nationals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Washington Nationals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Washington Nationals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CA CJ Abrams LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JW James Wood LHB .363
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. James Wood
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .420 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 JY Jacob Young RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dylan Crews RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Crews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BH Brady House RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brady House
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.