PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Washington Nationals

How the Washington Nationals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .277vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Washington Nationals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Washington Nationals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CA CJ Abrams LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JW James Wood LHB .367
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. James Wood
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 JY Jacob Young RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dylan Crews RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Crews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BH Brady House RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brady House
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-08 game page →