PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .277vs RHH xwOBA .330Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-19 game page →