PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 OC Owen Caissie LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.