PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .278vs RHH xwOBA .333Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 581 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 518 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jackson Chourio SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JB Jake Bauers LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SF Sal Frelick LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 DH David Hamilton LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.