PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .280vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 21%Sinker 12%SV 9%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB Jake Bauers LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 JC Jackson Chourio SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DH David Hamilton LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AV Andrew Vaughn RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Vaughn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.