PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .378
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.