PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .275vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 22%Sinker 11%SV 8%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .380
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .414 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 470 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (8% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.