PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .276vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Splitter 23%Slider 21%Sinker 12%SV 9%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .389
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.