PITCHER MATCHUP

Casey Mize vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Casey Mize's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Casey Mize's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Splitter 24%Slider 20%Sinker 11%SV 9%Knuckle Curve 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Casey Mize, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .382
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .426 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CS Cam Smith RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 JM Jake Meyers RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Meyers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (24% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-17 game page →