PITCHER MATCHUP

Carson Palmquist vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Carson Palmquist's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Carson Palmquist's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .353vs RHH xwOBA .363Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Sweeper 33%Cutter 12%Sinker 11%Changeup 3%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Carson Palmquist, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .425 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.