PITCHER MATCHUP

Carson Palmquist vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Carson Palmquist's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Carson Palmquist's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .352vs RHH xwOBA .360Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Sweeper 32%Cutter 12%Sinker 9%Changeup 3%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Carson Palmquist, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .421 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.