PITCHER MATCHUP

Carmen Mlodzinski vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Carmen Mlodzinski's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Carmen Mlodzinski's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Splitter 20%Sinker 15%Sweeper 11%Slider 10%Curveball 9%Cutter 3%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Carmen Mlodzinski, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CK Colt Keith LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JB Javier Báez SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Max Clark LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Clark
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.