PITCHER MATCHUP

Carmen Mlodzinski vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Carmen Mlodzinski's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Carmen Mlodzinski's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Splitter 20%Sinker 16%Sweeper 11%Curveball 10%Slider 9%Cutter 4%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Carmen Mlodzinski, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .423 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.