PITCHER MATCHUP
Cade Cavalli vs Boston Red Sox
How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Cade Cavalli's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Cade Cavalli's arsenal
Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .293vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Knuckle Curve 26%Sinker 14%Sweeper 13%Changeup 9%Cutter 6%
How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Cade Cavalli, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .314
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1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .330
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (14% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .322
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 644 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (14% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .305
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .298
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .346
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (14% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .314
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .302
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 TS Trevor Story RHB .299
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (14% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 NS Nick Sogard SH .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.