PITCHER MATCHUP

Cade Cavalli vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Cade Cavalli's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Cade Cavalli's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .315vs RHH xwOBA .341Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Knuckle Curve 27%Sinker 17%Changeup 10%Sweeper 10%Cutter 3%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Cade Cavalli, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 567 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-30 game page →