PITCHER MATCHUP

Cade Cavalli vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Cade Cavalli's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Cade Cavalli's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .293vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Knuckle Curve 26%Sinker 14%Sweeper 13%Changeup 9%Cutter 6%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Cade Cavalli, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.