PITCHER MATCHUP

Cade Cavalli vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Cade Cavalli's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Cade Cavalli's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .300vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Knuckle Curve 26%Sinker 15%Sweeper 11%Changeup 9%Cutter 5%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Cade Cavalli, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.