PITCHER MATCHUP

Cade Cavalli vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Cade Cavalli's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Cade Cavalli's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .308vs RHH xwOBA .326Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Knuckle Curve 27%Sinker 16%Sweeper 10%Changeup 10%Cutter 2%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Cade Cavalli, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-05 game page →