PITCHER MATCHUP

Cade Cavalli vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Cade Cavalli's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Cade Cavalli's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .293vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Knuckle Curve 26%Sinker 14%Sweeper 13%Changeup 9%Cutter 6%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Cade Cavalli, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.