PITCHER MATCHUP

Cade Cavalli vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Cade Cavalli's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Cade Cavalli's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .293vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Knuckle Curve 26%Sinker 14%Sweeper 13%Changeup 9%Cutter 6%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Cade Cavalli, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 527 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 577 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 555 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 630 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.