PITCHER MATCHUP

Cade Cavalli vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Cade Cavalli's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Cade Cavalli's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .341Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Knuckle Curve 27%Sinker 16%Changeup 10%Sweeper 10%Cutter 3%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Cade Cavalli, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LR Luke Raley LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 MG Mitch Garver RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RR Rob Refsnyder RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rob Refsnyder
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CE Colt Emerson LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.