PITCHER MATCHUP

Cade Cavalli vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Cade Cavalli's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Cade Cavalli's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .293vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Knuckle Curve 26%Sinker 14%Sweeper 13%Changeup 9%Cutter 6%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Cade Cavalli, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 587 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 561 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 607 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 IH Ian Happ SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 622 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.