PITCHER MATCHUP

Cade Cavalli vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Cade Cavalli's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Cade Cavalli's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .293vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Knuckle Curve 26%Sinker 14%Sweeper 13%Changeup 9%Cutter 6%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Cade Cavalli, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (26% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .229 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-18 game page →