PITCHER MATCHUP

Bubba Chandler vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bubba Chandler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bubba Chandler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .317vs RHH xwOBA .293Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 50%Slider 18%Changeup 17%Sinker 6%Sweeper 5%Curveball 5%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bubba Chandler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 609 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 AR Adley Rutschman SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.