PITCHER MATCHUP

Bubba Chandler vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bubba Chandler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bubba Chandler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 49%Slider 19%Changeup 16%Sinker 7%Curveball 5%Sweeper 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bubba Chandler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 644 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 TS Trevor Story RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NS Nick Sogard SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.