PITCHER MATCHUP

Bubba Chandler vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bubba Chandler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bubba Chandler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .303Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 49%Slider 19%Changeup 16%Sinker 7%Curveball 5%Sweeper 4%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bubba Chandler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.