PITCHER MATCHUP

Bubba Chandler vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bubba Chandler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bubba Chandler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .292Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 49%Slider 18%Changeup 17%Sinker 6%Curveball 5%Sweeper 5%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bubba Chandler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 509 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-26 game page →