PITCHER MATCHUP

Brayan Bello vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brayan Bello's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brayan Bello's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .357vs RHH xwOBA .302Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 37%Changeup 19%Sweeper 18%Cutter 13%Four-Seam Fastball 11%Curveball 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brayan Bello, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MS Matt Shaw RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GA Gabriel Arias RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Arias
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.