PITCHER MATCHUP

Brayan Bello vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brayan Bello's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brayan Bello's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .357vs RHH xwOBA .301Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 37%Changeup 19%Sweeper 18%Cutter 13%Four-Seam Fastball 11%Curveball 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brayan Bello, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 587 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 561 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 607 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 IH Ian Happ SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 622 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-25 game page →