PITCHER MATCHUP

Braxton Ashcraft vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Braxton Ashcraft's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Braxton Ashcraft's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .308vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 25%Slider 24%Sinker 17%Splitter 3%Changeup 1%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Braxton Ashcraft, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RG Riley Greene LHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 JB Javier Báez SH .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.