PITCHER MATCHUP

Braxton Ashcraft vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Braxton Ashcraft's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Braxton Ashcraft's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .306vs RHH xwOBA .265Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Slider 25%Curveball 25%Sinker 15%Splitter 3%Changeup 1%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Braxton Ashcraft, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CK Colt Keith LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 JB Javier Báez SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BM Ben Malgeri SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Malgeri
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-18 game page →