PITCHER MATCHUP

Braxton Ashcraft vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Braxton Ashcraft's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Braxton Ashcraft's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .263Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Slider 25%Curveball 25%Sinker 16%Splitter 3%Changeup 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Braxton Ashcraft, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 509 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-24 game page →