PITCHER MATCHUP

Braxton Ashcraft vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Braxton Ashcraft's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Braxton Ashcraft's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .308vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 25%Slider 24%Sinker 17%Splitter 3%Changeup 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Braxton Ashcraft, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.