PITCHER MATCHUP

Braxton Ashcraft vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Braxton Ashcraft's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Braxton Ashcraft's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .308vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 25%Slider 24%Sinker 17%Splitter 3%Changeup 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Braxton Ashcraft, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.