PITCHER MATCHUP
Braxton Ashcraft vs Miami Marlins
How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Braxton Ashcraft's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Braxton Ashcraft's arsenal
Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .304vs RHH xwOBA .267Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Slider 27%Curveball 23%Sinker 15%Splitter 3%Changeup 1%
How the Miami Marlins's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Braxton Ashcraft, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .315
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1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .332
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .321
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (23% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 LH Liam Hicks LHB .322
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 CN Connor Norby RHB .291
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (23% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .327
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 OC Owen Caissie LHB .308
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .293
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.