PITCHER MATCHUP

Braxton Ashcraft vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Braxton Ashcraft's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Braxton Ashcraft's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .308vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 25%Slider 24%Sinker 17%Splitter 3%Changeup 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Braxton Ashcraft, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 OC Owen Caissie LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .365
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .445 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.