PITCHER MATCHUP

Braxton Ashcraft vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Braxton Ashcraft's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Braxton Ashcraft's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .308vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 25%Slider 24%Sinker 17%Splitter 3%Changeup 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Braxton Ashcraft, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 580 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 558 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 636 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.