PITCHER MATCHUP

Braxton Ashcraft vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Braxton Ashcraft's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Braxton Ashcraft's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .265Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Slider 26%Curveball 25%Sinker 15%Splitter 4%Changeup 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Braxton Ashcraft, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 585 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .420 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .363
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CE Colt Emerson LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 VR Victor Robles RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.