PITCHER MATCHUP

Braxton Ashcraft vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Braxton Ashcraft's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Braxton Ashcraft's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .292vs RHH xwOBA .264Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Slider 27%Curveball 23%Sinker 16%Splitter 3%Changeup 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Braxton Ashcraft, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JN Josh Naylor LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LR Luke Raley LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .436 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .368
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 RR Rob Refsnyder RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rob Refsnyder
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MG Mitch Garver RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-24 game page →