PITCHER MATCHUP

Braxton Ashcraft vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Braxton Ashcraft's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Braxton Ashcraft's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .308vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 25%Slider 24%Sinker 17%Splitter 3%Changeup 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Braxton Ashcraft, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 628 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.