PITCHER MATCHUP

Braxton Ashcraft vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Braxton Ashcraft's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Braxton Ashcraft's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .307vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 25%Slider 25%Sinker 16%Splitter 3%Changeup 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Braxton Ashcraft, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 AB Alex Bregman RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 606 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Tyrone Taylor RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyrone Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.