PITCHER MATCHUP

Braxton Ashcraft vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Braxton Ashcraft's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Braxton Ashcraft's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .267Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Slider 26%Curveball 25%Sinker 15%Splitter 4%Changeup 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Braxton Ashcraft, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-26 game page →